Causes of Improvement in the Security Environment of Iraq, 2006-2009
Abstract
Popular consensus exists that the 2007 surge of U.S. forces in Iraq led to an improved security environment. The surge was designed to reduce violence and improve security by protecting the Iraqi population -- a change in strategy. According to this consensus, the security environment improved because of the surge, an effect that could be measured by the decreasing number of attacks. For the purpose of this thesis, the security environment in Iraq consists of the number of attacks and their lethality, as supported by data from the Congressional Research Service. The thesis compares the timelines of the surge forces with the numbers of attacks, the lethality of those attacks, and with factors other than the surge that may have improved the security environment. The thesis argues that the surge and associated strategies may have hastened improvements to the security environment, but they were neither necessary nor sufficient for those improvements. Several theories and conflict models offer insight into how improvements in the Iraqi security environment occurred. For example, improvements could have occurred because of efforts that countered insurgent sanctuaries and social support, and consequently decreased the lethality of the insurgent attacks. The analysis reveals that the political efforts of the Iraqi provincial and central governments and grass roots movements were the necessary and sufficient conditions for improvement in Iraq's security environment from 2007 to 2009.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 2009
- Accession Number
- ADA514331
Entities
People
- Seth A. Wheeler
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School