Preparing for Irregular Warfare: The Future Ain't What It Used to Be
Abstract
Contrary to doctrine and direction, the Air Force's actions make clear that it does not consider IW a priority. It's now fashionable in the Pentagon for airpower advocates to dismiss COIN as the "last war" and call for an all-out push for modernization to prepare for war with a technologically sophisticated peer or near-peer enemy. Despite an inability to predict our involvement in insurgencies after the initial phases of Operations Enduring Freedom or Iraqi Freedom, the Air Staff appears confident that such insurgencies will not occur again. Yet, of the 14 major conflicts raging in the summer of 2008, none were conventional fights between nation-states. Of the 30 or so major conflicts of the past decade, only four occurred between nations. Today, places such as Sudan, Sri Lanka, Colombia, and the Philippines see wars between ethnic groups, insurgents, and religions. A recent RAND study found significant cause for concern in eight specific regions that lie effectively beyond the control of any recognized government. What is the likelihood of the US military's becoming involved in these conflicts? We have used military force over 300 times in our history-a number that includes only 11 declared wars and a few more sustained conventional conflicts (e.g., Korea, Vietnam, the two Gulf Wars, etc.). Although military personnel may recommend that our political leadership avoid involvement in other nations' internal wars, it is not our decision. History shows that we must be ready and able to meet a full spectrum of challenges, which includes assisting other nations with internal conflicts. IW does not generally threaten the survival of the United States; however, it poses significant threats to our interests in today's globalized environment. For example, irregular wars influence two of the five largest US oil suppliers-Nigeria and Venezuela.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 2009
- Accession Number
- ADA514499
Entities
People
- John D. Jogerst
Organizations
- Air University