Israel and the Iranian Nuclear Infrastructure
Abstract
In a recent Wall Street Journal article, John Bolton asked, "What if Israel strikes Iran?"1 Certainly there has been a great deal of media attention on this subject, particularly since Israel launched over 100 aircraft in a June 2008 aerial exercise believed to simulate an attack on Iran. It was also rumored that during former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's visit to Washington in May of that year, he asked President George W. Bush for permission to overfly Iraq in order to strike targets in Iran, which Bush denied. If true, the denial likely delayed an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear targets that might have otherwise occurred before President Bush left office. Now that President Barack Obama has taken up the reins of U.S. leadership and has renewed efforts to jump-start the Arab-Israeli peace process, the question of the Iranian nuclear threat to Israel remains unresolved. Most defense experts agree that a strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure would only delay, and not prevent, Iran's efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. Even the current Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi, has admitted his belief that an aerial attack would only set back Iran's nuclear program 2 or 3 years. With Iran's ability to attack Israel through its proxies Hamas and Hizballah, it seems unlikely that the benefits of delaying Iran's nuclear program by that length of time outweigh the costs to Israel in terms of immediate, elevated threats to or within its borders. Moreover, President Bush would have had U.S. interests in mind when denying Israel a green light to bomb nuclear sites in Iran, and Bush chose not to launch such an attack himself despite speculation to the contrary and a greater capability to do so. U.S. forces in the region would be vulnerable to Iranian retaliation, and Iran certainly has the potential to disrupt ongoing U.S. peace-building efforts in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA515108
Entities
People
- Brent J. Talbot
Organizations
- National Defense University