Identifying Disruptive Technologies Facing the United States in the Next 20 Years
Abstract
"Disruptive technology" is a term coined in 1995 by Joseph L. Bower and Clayton M. Christensen to describe the phenomena of entrenched commercial technology being replaced by new technology. What makes the technology truly disruptive is that before the entrenched company realizes the change in the marketplace, the new technology has invaded the market and made the entrenched technology obsolete. Perhaps the most devastating example of disruptive technology in recent history is the atomic bomb. Before August 6, 1945, the world, with the exception of the few who knew the full scope of the program, was oblivious to the weapon conceived and developed over the previous six years. The development of the bomb and its implementation changed the laws of war and gave a new meaning to the concept of total war previously held by the fire-bombings on mainland Germany during World War II. The 2004 National Military Security Strategy of the United States called worldwide technology diffusion a catalyst enabling adversaries to gain disruptive technologies that could marginalize U.S. technological superiority. Access to advanced weapons and delivery systems by state or nonstate foreign actors would require the U.S. military to continue to transform to meet these new challenges. "Disruptive challenges" also were named in the 2006 National Security Strategy as one of the issues that spurred a need for the Department of Defense to transform itself to better balance its capabilities. The primary research question of this thesis is as follows: How is a military disruptive technology identified? Secondary research questions are What is military disruptive technology?; What are the differences between commercial disruptive technology and military disruptive technology?; What are the stages of a military disruptive technology?; and What is the United States doing to prevent technological surprise by an adversary using potential disruptive technology on the battlefield?
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 11, 2009
- Accession Number
- ADA516859
Entities
People
- Samuel T. Mitchell Ii
Organizations
- United States Army Command and General Staff College