Impact of Uncertainty on Terror Forecasting

Abstract

Intelligence analysts and military planners need accurate forecasting techniques for predicting future terror events. Terror forecasts must consider historical events, up-to-date geospatial features, terrorist behavior, and uncertainty and error in the input measurements and propagation of data. We describe our forecasting technique and investigation of the impact of uncertainty and error on predicting future terror events.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2007
Accession Number
ADA518223

Entities

People

  • G. S. Schmidt
  • J. Goffeney
  • R. Willis

Organizations

  • United States Naval Research Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Department Of Homeland Security
  • Geographic Information Systems
  • Homeland Security
  • Hot Spots
  • Information Operations
  • Information Systems
  • Intelligence Analysts
  • Man Borne Improvised Explosive Devices
  • Military Research
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Security
  • Simulations
  • Standards
  • Uncertainty

Readers

  • Geospatial Intelligence and Artificial Intelligence Analytics
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers
  • Strategic Security Studies