Coaxing the Peace: Reassurance Strategy in the Twenty-first Century
Abstract
The international system of the 21st century calls for new ways to resolve conflicts. Traditional influence strategies, such as deterrence and compellence, have undergone revisions to conform to new challenges. A third strategy, reassurance, has demonstrated its potential in recent interstate conflicts. A strategy of reassurance involves one state taking actions to increase the security of an adversary by helping the adversary on an issue that the adversary deems important. If the actions convince the adversary that the reassurer seeks peace, and the adversary also seeks peace, then the adversary reciprocates by sending an equally reassuring signal, completing an exchange that may lead to cooperation. History has demonstrated that measures intended to provide reassurance have at times been reciprocated, other times ignored, and sometimes even exploited. This thesis seeks to find the causes for the diverse outcomes of reassurance. The main question it seeks to address is this: Under what conditions are signals of reassurance reciprocated? The thesis analyzes the process of reassurance using four modern case studies. The first case involves the rapprochement between Spain and Morocco. Both nations almost went to war in 2002 when Moroccan troops occupied a small island off Spain's coast in the Strait of Gibraltar, which was claimed by Spain. The second case involves the rapprochement between Italy and Libya. Both nations almost went to war in 1986 when Libya launched two Scud missiles at a U.S. base in Italy in retaliation for an American air strike on Libya several hours earlier. The third case study focuses on the dispute between Colombia and Nicaragua over an archipelago in the Western Caribbean. The fourth case study has to do with the ongoing tensions between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots. After several conflicts that included Greek and Turkish forces, a tense but stable situation has existed for over 30 years.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA518625
Entities
People
- Dave A. Lopez
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School