National Security and Global Climate Change
Abstract
The uncertainty, confusion, and speculation about the causes, effects, and implications of global climate change (GCC) often paralyze serious discussion by polarizing decision makers and the public into camps of "believers" and "skeptics." The intention of this article is not to present a case for or against scientific indications of global climate change, but to consider how it would pose challenges to national security, explore options for facing those challenges, and consider roles for the United States in general and the U.S. military in particular in the many low-likelihood/high-consequence events that this threat could present. In April 2007, the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), in coordination with 11 retired three- and four-star generals and admirals, released a report concluding that projected climate change poses a serious threat to America's national security. This article develops many of the ideas in that report by offering another way to consider the actual threats from GCC and expanding on what could be done to combat them. Specifically, it adds substance to the CNA report's third recommendation: "The U.S. should commit to global partnerships that help developed nations build the capacity and resiliency to better manage climate impacts." For the purpose of this essay, "national security" is defined as the need to maintain the safety, prosperity, and survival of the nation-state through the use of the instruments of national power: diplomatic, informational, military, and economic. An important aspect of GCC is the fact that some of its predicted effects will, on a human time scale, be permanent. The persistence of GCC effects magnifies impact as people will be forced to adapt dramatically or to relocate permanently. For this assessment, some GCC effects identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report, are considered.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2008
- Accession Number
- ADA518858
Entities
People
- Sean C. Maybee