Validation of Rational Deterrence Theory: Analysis of U.S. Government and Adversary Risk Propensity and Relative Emphasis on Gain or Loss

Abstract

This thesis develops a rational deterrence case study risk elicitation framework to assess the risk propensity and relative emphasis on loss/gain of the U.S. and various adversaries involved in historical and current deterrence games. This framework is used to elicit qualitative historical information that supports a notional Deterrence Efficacy Model. This qualitative approach is further supported by a basic game-theoretic approach predicting the efficacy of deterrence given certain actor risk profiles. Recommendations as to the efficacy of deterrence for current U.S. national security threats are offered using the proposed Deterrence Efficacy Model, quantitative framework, and supporting methodology.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2010
Accession Number
ADA519012

Entities

People

  • Eric F. Taquechel

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Human Systems
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Economic Sanctions
  • Game Theory
  • Geography
  • Globalization
  • Intergovernmental Organizations
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • Military Organizations
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Personnel Management
  • Political Systems
  • Psychology
  • Recreation
  • Second World War
  • Treaties
  • War Colleges

Readers

  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.