Thinking About the Unthinkable: Tokyo's Nuclear Option
Abstract
Will Japan go nuclear? Doubtful -- but what if it does? It is possible to envision circumstances that would impel Tokyo and the Japanese populace to cast aside their long-standing dread of nuclear weapons and to construct an arsenal of their own for the sake of national survival. Menacing strategic surroundings or a collapse of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty are two such circumstances. If some nightmare scenario did come to pass, the common wisdom has it, Japan could build a working bomb in short order. In 1991, Richard Halloran averred that "Japan is N minus six months," although he saw no evidence that Japan entertained any ambition to tap its latent weapons capability. In 2007, Gary Sick, a well known commentator on Middle East affairs, reported having been privately told that Japan "could do it, sort of, over a long weekend." Japan, that is, may now qualify as a "threshold state," a term "commonly understood to mean possession of the indigenous ability to acquire nuclear weapons within a relatively short time frame, ranging from a few hours to several months."
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2009
- Accession Number
- ADA519333
Entities
People
- James R. Holmes
- Toshi Yoshihara
Organizations
- Naval War College