Method of Measuring the Economic Impact of a Radiological Dispersal Event within an Urban Environment

Abstract

A Radiological Dispersal Event (RDE) is the result of a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD), or a dirty bomb. An RDD is a low-yield conventional bomb surrounded by radiological material, such as Cesium-137 or Cobalt-60. Upon detonation, the blast of the conventional explosive is designed to spread the radiological material over a wide area. The radiological material will then be inhaled or ingested by people, or otherwise absorbed into the environment. An RDD is an affordable, feasible, and economically devastating option for terrorist groups. Radiological material can be stolen or acquired cheaply from the millions of radioactive sources used worldwide in industry, medicine, and academia. The purpose of this research is to develop a methodology to assess the economic impacts resulting from an RDE in an urban center. Specifically, the author used an Input-Output model to evaluate the economic impacts of an RDE in three districts of an urban center modeled after Dayton, Ohio: the industrial district, the retail district, and the central business district. The study showed that the direct, indirect, and induced costs of the RDE remained consistent independent of the district at approximately 60%, 15%, and 25%, respectively. Previous attempts to quantify the impact of an RDE only measured the direct costs, thus failing to capture approximately 40% of the total costs of such an event. The 1-year costs of an RDE in a central business district would be approximately $1.4, and it would affect approximately 860 firms in 270 distinct industries. Approximately 18,000 workers would be unemployed immediately following the attack, and an additional 113,000 people would be affected by the shift in the local economy as a result of indirect and induced costs. The methodology can be generalized to other regions or cities.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2010
Accession Number
ADA519531

Entities

People

  • Antoine N. Munfakh

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Air Force
  • Business Administration
  • Economic Impact
  • Employment
  • Explosives
  • Input Output Models
  • Instructions
  • Materials
  • Military Education
  • Organizational Structure
  • Personnel Management
  • Radiological Weapons
  • Schools
  • Security
  • Terrorism
  • Universities

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