Repression and Protest: The Limitations of Aggregation
Abstract
The relationship between state repression and protest is one of the most perplexing in social mobilization theory. Why in some cases does state repression succeed in suppressing organized protest and social movements, while in other cases it only serves to fan the flames of protest? Through various studies, different scholars have proposed and empirically supported contradictory theories that the relationship between the two is either an "inverted U", positively linear, inversely linear, or curvilinear with a sharp increase at the extremes. A recent comparison of all approaches produced inconclusive results. In fact one expert in the field is doubtful the relationship will ever be resolved. While this may ultimately be correct, we will at least increases the chances of success and overall understanding of the issue if we eliminate the shortcoming present in the majority of the studies thus far, the imprecise naming and categorizing of variables, namely the aggregation of repression. This paper will attempt to shed some light on the issues in three parts. First I present a brief review of existing curve theories. Second, I proceed with a discussion of excessive aggregation, the common limitation of most of the current approaches. Lastly, I describe a new paradigm that deconstructs repression into more manageable and more useful elements. The existing theories on the relationship between repression and political mobilization are equally contradictory and inadequate. Independent tests of the various theories proposed offer little clarity as the results are often inclusive. This paper proposes that the common problem shared by most of the previous work on the subject is the oversimplification, or aggregation, of the repression variable. Using the elements of timing, targeting and access, we can more accurately predict violent reactions to repression in specific situations and start to resolve the seemingly contradictory results of previous studies.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 2008
- Accession Number
- ADA519759
Entities
People
- T. J. O'connell
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School