Outthinking the AIF
Abstract
The Iraqi national and provincial elections in January 2005 are an important milestone in the effort to rebuild the nation. They offer a major step toward establishing effective Iraqi-led governance while facilitating a better security environment and helping to create conditions under which economic development and infrastructure repair can occur. As important as the elections are, their impact will be diminished if the Coalition and the new Iraqi leadership do not take advantage of the environment they create. Of particular concern is the establishment of a more stable security situation, as this provides the setting for other improvements to occur. While the tactical situation immediately following the January 2005 elections may look the same as before, there will be new strategic opportunities available to the Iraqi government (IG) and the Coalition forces (CF). The elections will create a new environment in which both friendly and anti-Iraq Forces (AIF) will operate. This new battlespace presents two unique possibilities for striking the AIF, which is a collection of various insurgent, terrorist, and criminal groups. First, following the "life cycle" approach to examining violent nonstate actors, the individual components of the AIF are likely to undergo a transformation as they reevaluate their goals and strategies in light of post-election changes. Second, the seams between different elements of the AIF should be more vulnerable to exploitation when their objectives, which have been somewhat common up until now, begin to diverge.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2005
- Accession Number
- ADA519971
Entities
People
- William C. Thomas
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School