Whither Regional Security in a World Turned Upside Down?
Abstract
Veteran Middle Eastern analyst and former Clinton administration official Martin Indyk recently characterized the Middle East as having been turned "upside down" in the aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. The Iraq invasion has unleashed wide-ranging forces that are re-ordering the internal and external dynamics of regional security and could plunge the region into a prolonged period of strategic insecurity. The regional balance of power is being profoundly altered by the political empowerment of the Shia majority in Iraq, the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq, and the accompanying loss of influence by Iraq's Sunni community. The aftermath of the Iraq invasion could represent a watershed for a military base structure that continues to be populated with more new staff and organizational structures. While the concrete jungle sprouting from the sands of the Persian Gulf might have made Sir Hugh Trenchard proud, it is not clear that the network of military facilities will be of much use in preserving regional security and stability. If Iraq proves to be a precursor to a prolonged period of strategic instability as new actors vie for political power throughout the region, the facilities infrastructure established by the British and passed on to the United States may prove to be a casualty of war. Such an environment suggests that externally applied military power via forward-based ground presence will decrease in importance and may well become politically untenable for the regional elites. This does not mean that the United States will have no tools at its disposal to project military power and influence. The end result of the coming regional upheavals and the pressure this will place on the ground-based military means that the U.S. Navy may once again reign supreme, projecting power and influence on an episodic basis from the sea.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2007
- Accession Number
- ADA520486
Entities
People
- James A. Russell
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School