Predicting the Potential for Invasive Species Establishment by Using Environmental Tolerance Data

Abstract

This study summarizes how a relatively simple model can be used to predict invasion potential by an aquatic nuisance species. The spread and subsequent unlikely eradication of alien species from recently invaded ecosystems reinforces the need for predictive tools to help management personnel evaluate associated detrimental impacts. It is estimated that in most countries 102-104 nonindigenous species have been documented, and numbers should increase with expanding global trade and travel (Lodge 1993). Although only a small percent (usually < 10 percent) are invasive (Williamson and Fitter 1996), some have enormous economic and ecological impacts (Office of Technology Assessments (OTA) 1993; Ricciardi and Rasmussen 1998). For these reasons a need exists to determine which species will be introduced and which will cause impacts in order to allocate resources for prevention, detection, management, and control efforts (Grosholz and Ruiz 1996; Ricciardi and Rasmussen 1998; Colnar and Landis 2007). Many models, simple and complex, have been developed to predict invasions of nonindigenous species over large regional areas. For example, invasive species attributes combined with transfer vectors and climate matching were used to predict potential distribution of common carp (Cyprinus carpio L.) in Australia (Koehn 2004). Attributes that were examined included: invasion history, environmental tolerances, genetic variability, sexual maturity, generation time, growth rate, reproductive capacity, diet, gregariousness, dispersal mechanisms, and use by humans. Vectors were either natural movement within watersheds or more frequently via accidental or deliberate release by anglers or through importation and release of ornamental "Koi" carp (Koehn 2004). Finally the authors found climatic conditions that exist in Australia matched other regions of the world where common carp have established, thus increasing the likelihood that the species would become established and widespread.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 2010
Accession Number
ADA520822

Entities

People

  • Judy F. Shearer
  • Michael J. Grodowitz

Organizations

  • Engineer Research and Development Center

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Australia
  • Colorado
  • Drainage Basins
  • Fish
  • Geographic Regions
  • Habitats
  • Information Systems
  • Management Personnel
  • Medical Personnel
  • New Zealand
  • North America
  • Risk
  • South Dakota
  • Technology Assessment
  • United States
  • Websites

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Aquatic Ecology

Technology Areas

  • Biotechnology