Force Sizing for Stability Operations

Abstract

This study was conducted for the Office of the Director, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) to develop methodologies for estimating force requirements for large-scale stability operations. The goal of the study was to provide Department of Defense (DoD) leadership with a rough idea of the capabilities and limitations of the programmed ground force structure to conduct stability operations in a broad range of countries. The estimates from this study are intended for use in force planning and evaluation within the context of the DoD Future Years Defense Program, not operational planning. The term "stability operation" encompasses a wide range of military activities. However, operations that involve large-scale counterinsurgency (COIN) operations are, historically, the most demanding for programmatic force sizing purposes and were the focus of the study. Background for the current study is found in work IDA performed in late 2005 supporting the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). Although in 2005 there was a paucity of data on historical stability operations, more recently, considerable additional research and data collection have been conducted. Specifically, the study obtained a database recently compiled by the Center for Army Analysis and extracted 41 conflict cases involving COIN operations for its analysis. In 2006 the U.S. Army and Marine Corps developed a joint doctrinal field manual, FM 3-24, Counterinsurgency, that provides important guidance on force sizing for COIN operations. The manual suggests figures for ?force densities? (troops per 1,000 inhabitants in the area of operations) required for effective operations--for example, 20 troops per 1,000 is cited as a minimum requirement. That figure has become a widely referenced rule of thumb. This study sheds light on the evidence supporting that guidance, confirming the 20 troops per 1,000 figure as a minimum.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2010
Accession Number
ADA520942

Entities

People

  • Arthur Fries
  • David A. Adesnik
  • Jason A. Dechant
  • Mark E. Tillman
  • Michael F. Fitzsimmons
  • R. R. Kneece Jr.

Organizations

  • Institute for Defense Analyses

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Asymmetric Warfare
  • Databases
  • Geography
  • Humanitarian Assistance
  • Information Science
  • Insurgency
  • International Organizations
  • Iraqi-War
  • Lessons Learned
  • Minority Groups
  • National Security
  • Regression Analysis
  • Second World War
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Terrain
  • Terrorism
  • Urban Areas

Readers

  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Joint Military Operations and Doctrine.
  • Theoretical Analysis.