Calibrating a Field-level, Systems Dynamics Model of Terrorism's Human Capital Subsystem: GSPC as Case Study[1]
Abstract
The impetus for field-level inquiry into terrorism has been discussed elsewhere, as has the current trend toward combining conceptual/theoretical, empirical and computational approaches for exploring the phenomenon. Despite this trend, however, the number of published studies that combine systematically gathered, empirical data on a specific terrorist group with theoretically-grounded computational models is small, although such work is clearly making important contributions in our knowledge and thinking about the phenomenon. Within work on terrorism, computational models derived from graph theory and social network analysis have begun to dominate the discourse, but agent-based models of organizational information processes and systems dynamics models have also emerged. This paper seeks to offer an example of how systems dynamics can be used to describe one aspect of the terrorism field-specifically, terrorism's human capital subsystem. We also share insights gleaned from systematically calibrating the model to eight years' worth of data.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 2006
- Accession Number
- ADA521132
Entities
People
- Otto Sieber
- Tara A. Leweling
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School