Planning the Unplannable: Scenarios on the Future of Space

Abstract

This article explores the use of scenario analysis as a methodology to rigorously analyze potential space futures, particularly with respect to space security challenges, in the context of rapid and uncertain change across several dimensions of human space activities. The successful use of scenario analysis in other (e.g. corporate and military) sectors is described and results of an initial scenario analysis workshop are presented. Scenario analysis is recommended as a promising approach to evaluating the long-term consequences of various policy choices in the context of uncertainty, and as a process well-suited to fostering communication and building consensual knowledge among diverse stakeholders.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 01, 2005
Accession Number
ADA523690

Entities

People

  • Joseph G. Bock
  • Miranda Weingartner
  • Wade L. Huntley

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Engineered Resilient Systems
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Arms Control
  • Artificial Satellites
  • Commerce
  • Globalization
  • Intergovernmental Organizations
  • International Law
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • Law
  • Low Earth Orbits
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Second World War
  • Space Objects
  • Treaties
  • United States
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • Space