Modeling and Comparison of Options for the Disposal of Excess Weapons Plutonium in Russia
Abstract
The Russian Plutonium Disposition Model, built using system dynamics software (Stella or IThink), allows for analysis and comparison of different options for disposing of excess weapons-grade plutonium in Russia. The model permits users to consider different scenarios for storing and burning excess plutonium, providing estimates for the status of material, costs, revenues, and level of proliferation concern over time. (A detailed discussion of the Russian Plutonium Disposition Model operation is included in Appendix 1). In this paper, the Russian Plutonium Disposition Model will be used to investigate three options for plutonium disposal: the use of existing Light Water Reactors (LWRs) converted to burn Mixed Oxide fuel (MOX), the building of new High Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGRs), and the building of new Advanced Fast Reactors (AFRs). The model is used to represent and analyze different scenarios involving these reactor types, as well as their associated fuel conversion and manufacturing facilities. In order to provide a straightforward comparison of the capabilities of the different reactor technologies, the disposal scenarios analyzed in this paper are somewhat simplified compared to potential real-world scenarios. In this analysis, only one type of reactor is considered in each scenario and all changes in reactor capacity occur linearly. The model has the ability to simulate more complex scenarios involving multiple reactor types and reactor histories, however this analysis is reserved for future applications. A major goal of this effort was to look at the performance of each scenario from both the U.S. and the Russian standpoint. The U.S. is primarily interested in reducing the proliferation threat posed by the excess plutonium. Meanwhile, the Russians see the excess plutonium as a valuable economic resource, from which they would like to generate energy and/or revenue. This model attempts to look at the future situation from each of these viewpoints, calcul
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA524324
Entities
People
- Chel Stromgren
Organizations
- Leidos