The Scoring of Integrative Complexity as a Tool in Forecasting Adversary Intentions: Three Case Studies
Abstract
The scoring of integrative complexity (IC) from archival materials has been shown to forecast outbreaks of war vs. peacefully negotiated agreements in a number of international crises. In scoring documents and other verbal materials released by national leaders and leadership groups, maintained or increased IC prior to the outcome of the confrontation precedes a peaceful resolution; a drop in IC within approximately six months prior to resolutions precedes the outbreak of war. These findings have been replicated in historical events where wars occurred as the culmination of cycles of escalation, surprise strategic attacks, and persistent international rivalries. The present report extends these findings into three different categories of conflict. One is an international war between two nations, one of which was until recently a subordinate part of another and is still in a situation of military and political inferiority (Georgia vs. Russia). Another is the periodic occurrence of government-sponsored violence against members of the political opposition (Zimbabwe). The third is the sporadic launching of terrorist attacks against civilian targets in a variety of countries by the same organization or its affiliates (al-Qaeda). In all three cases, the findings have been similar to those of previous studies: i.e., drops in IC reliably occur several months prior to each episode of violence, whereas increases in IC are found during periods of reduced tension.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA526439
Entities
People
- Peter Suedfeld
Organizations
- University of British Columbia