Taiwan: America's Next War?
Abstract
The intent of this monograph is to forecast the People's Republic of China's maritime capabilities and intentions twenty years hence, in order to derive the U.S. maritime force projection requirements, with particular emphasis on the U.S. Marine Corps, necessary to prevail in a conflict with China across the Taiwan Straits. At present, the U.S. Marine Corps' force structure and size decisions are based on the legacy of its past and ambiguous judgments about its anticipated future capabilities. This author believes that force size and structure decisions are not possible unless one has a general sense of what missions will be assigned. To anticipate future Marine Corps missions, a Sino-American conflict over Taiwan is considered. To accomplish this, the vital interests of Taiwan and the Pacific Rim for both China and the United States are first deliberated. The purpose of this evaluation is to determine whether China is seriously considering repatriating Taiwan by military force. Furthermore, the paper then discusses America's likely reaction to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Concluding that China will use military force against Taiwan, and that the American counter-action will be the employment of military force in support of Taipei, based on current trends, the monograph then discusses, projects and compares both Chinese and American future maritime capabilities and advances. With these capabilities envisioned, the paper presents a 2015 wargame scenario--Chinese use of force to repatriate Taiwan and America's maritime response. From this discussion and analysis, potential Marine Corps missions, capabilities, shortcomings, and force structure requirements are identified.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 08, 1998
- Accession Number
- ADA529769
Entities
People
- James J. Buckley
Organizations
- Marine Corps University