Assessing the NATO/Warsaw Pact Military Balance
Abstract
What is the military balance between the NATO nations and those of the Warsaw Pact? Observers of the situation disagree. For example, there is no consensus about the balance along the crucial Central Front--the border dividing West Germany from Eastern Europe: some analysts have described the balance there as essentially even; others contend that Pact forces outweigh NATO strength by a ratio of two to one or more. And simulations of combat in Europe yield equally varied results. Some suggest that the NATO forces could easily stave off a Pact attack, while others see them going down to a quick defeat. Why is there such disparity among the assessments? The major sources of disagreement appear limited in number. They also seem to be based less on actual information than on a relatively small array of assumptions and judgments. Those assumptions and judgments are often implicit, and many involve political, not military, questions. Different evaluations of the NATO/Pact balance can ultimately lead to very different implications for the U.S. defense budget. As an aid to understanding these discrepancies, this paper tries to describe why assessments can differ so much--how experts, equipped with the same information, can disagree about whether the military balance is advantageous or disadvantageous from NATO's standpoint. The study is designed to help identify what drives analysts toward optimistic or pessimistic conclusions.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 1978
- Accession Number
- ADA530401
Entities
People
- A. Hamilton
- James Blaker
Organizations
- Congressional Budget Office