An Analysis of Counterinsurgency Campaigns Using Lanchestrian Based Marketing Differential Equations

Abstract

We develop a campaign model for counterinsurgency that is derived from the Lanchester-inspired Vidale-Wolfe marketing model utilized in the analysis of a consumer population's dynamics. We adapt this approach for a situation in which the output of our differential equation model is not attrition but the percentage of a given population that supports a particular side in the insurgency. The model is descriptive, providing a structured framework to analyze complex inputs in a simple, straightforward and easily understood framework. Parametric observations reveal that a fledgling insurgency will grow to be a major concern if left unaddressed by the government. Data from Colombia's insurgency demonstrates that the model is well suited to reflect the movement of a population's support away from the government and toward an insurgency.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 2010
Accession Number
ADA531489

Entities

People

  • Christian W. Blasy

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Engineered Resilient Systems
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Asymmetric Warfare
  • Attrition
  • California
  • Commerce
  • Difference Equations
  • Differential Equations
  • Equations
  • Equations Of State
  • Governments
  • Insurgency
  • Mathematical Models
  • Operations Research
  • Personnel Management
  • Terrorism
  • Terrorists
  • United States
  • Warfare

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Military History / Militaries and War Studies