Operational Impact of Improved Space Tracking on Collision Avoidance in the Future LEO Space Debris Environment

Abstract

Even if global space policy successfully curtails on orbit explosions and ASAT demonstrations, studies indicate that the number of debris objects in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will continue to grow solely from debris on debris collisions and debris generated from new launches. This study examines the threat posed by this growing space debris population over the next 30 years and how improvements in our space tracking capabilities can reduce the number of Collision Avoidance (COLA) maneuvers required keep the risk of operational satellite loss within tolerable limits. Particular focus is given to satellites operated by the Department of Defense (DoD) and Intelligence Community (IC) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The following debris field and space tracking performance parameters were varied parametrically in the experiment to study the impact on the number of collision avoidance maneuvers required - Debris Field Density (by year 2009, 2019, 2029, and 2039) - Quality of Track Update (starting 1 sigma error ellipsoid) - Future Propagator Accuracy (error ellipsoid growth rates - Special Perturbations in 3 axes) - Track Update Rate for Debris (stochastic) - Track Update Rate for Payloads (stochastic) Baseline values matching present day tracking performance for quality of track update, propagator accuracy, and track update rate were derived by analyzing updates to the unclassified Satellite Catalog (SatCat). Track update rates varied significantly for active payloads and debris and as such we used different models for the track update rates for military payloads and debris. The analysis was conducted using the System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) an agent based model developed by the United States Air Force Space Command's Space and Missile Systems Center to evaluate the military utility of space systems.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 2010
Accession Number
ADA531682

Entities

People

  • Alan B. Jenkin
  • David Borgeson
  • David Sibert
  • Glenn Peterson
  • Marlon Sorge

Organizations

  • Space Systems Command

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Artificial Satellites
  • Collision Avoidance
  • Department Of Defense
  • Earth Orbits
  • Environment
  • Information Operations
  • Low Earth Orbits
  • Orbits
  • Payload
  • Space Debris
  • Space Objects
  • Space Surveillance
  • Space Systems
  • Spacecraft
  • Surveillance
  • United States

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Explosive Engineering.
  • Missile Defense Systems.

Technology Areas

  • Space
  • Space - Orbital Debris