Rethinking Strategic Surprise: Defence Planning Under "Bounded Uncertainty"

Abstract

This Technical Memorandum contends that the defence planning process is ill served by the assumption that uncertainty abounds. To the extent that uncertainty poses a serious impediment to effective defence planning against the threat of strategic surprise, it is a problem circumscribed by relatively firm knowledge as to the potential sources of danger. Accordingly, I propose recasting the problem of strategic surprise as one of "bounded uncertainty." The argument is empirically illustrated through an examination of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 2010
Accession Number
ADA533235

Entities

People

  • Brian W. Greene

Organizations

  • Defence Research and Development Canada

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Counter WMD
  • Human Systems
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Classification
  • Commercial Aircraft
  • Contingency Operations (Military)
  • Defense Planning
  • Economic Sanctions
  • Foreign Policy
  • Governments
  • International Relations
  • Korean War
  • National Security
  • New York
  • Second World War
  • Security
  • Terrorists
  • United States
  • War
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Military History / Militaries and War Studies
  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design