Development of an Expert System Based on the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting
Abstract
The long-term goals of this project are to improve the quantitative accuracy and interpretative utility of official tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts by enabling forecasters to successfully recognize and skillfully compensate for periods when numerical TC track forecast models are likely to be making highly erroneous track forecasts. The conceptual methodology for accomplishing these goals is the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting (hereafter Systematic Approach) conceived by Carr and Elsberry (1994). This particular project is also being pursued in collaboration with R. L. Elsberry. The specific objectives of this project are to: (i) develop a prototype expert system based on the Systematic Approach; and (ii) demonstrate the feasibility of such an expert system for improving the accuracy and meteorological utility of official tropical cyclone track forecasts. It is emphasized that the purpose of the expert system is not to replace the human forecaster, but to proactively lead the forecaster through a methodical process of numerical guidance evaluation and forecast formulation that produces consistently skillful official track forecasts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 1998
- Accession Number
- ADA534949
Entities
People
- Lester E. Carr Iii
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School