A Statistical Approach to the Development of Progress Plans Utilizing Bayesian Methods and Expert Judgment

Abstract

The development of progress plans for each identified technical performance parameter (TPP) is a critical element of technical performance measurement. The measured values of TPPs are referred to as technical performance measures (TPMs). These terms are used interchangeably; however, TPMs more directly reflect how technical progress and technical risk are measured and evaluated. Progress plans, or planned performance profiles, are crucial to effective risk assessment; however, methods for developing these plans are subjective in nature, have no statistical basis or criteria as a rule, and are not sufficiently addressed in literature. The methodology proposed herein for progress plan development will involve the elicitation of expert judgments to formulate probability distributions that reflect the expected values/estimates used to establish progress plans.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2011
Accession Number
ADA535509

Entities

People

  • Shahram Sarkani
  • Thomas A. Mazzuchi
  • Tiffany L. Lewis

Organizations

  • Defense Acquisition University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Acquisition
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Delphi Method
  • Engineering
  • Engineers
  • Judgment
  • Measurement
  • Military Acquisition
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Standards
  • Systems Engineering
  • Test And Evaluation

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Materials Science and Engineering.
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Software Engineering

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference