U.S. Strategy for Iran Following its Achievement of Nuclear Weapon Capability
Abstract
Written from the perspective that Iran has already obtained a nuclear weapon capability, this research paper addresses three questions with respect to Iran. Why does the Iranian leadership behave the way it does? What does Iran perceive it will gain with its nuclear weapons? And finally, how should the U.S. respond? Answers to the first two questions are based on observed historical events that build a basic understanding of the nature and logic behind Iran's behavior. The proposed U.S. response is based on the analysis that the Iranian regime's behavioral tendencies are pragmatic and likely to remain consistent with their past actions. The Islamic Republic of Iran is a theocratic state with Supreme Leader Khamenei as the final decision maker on all Iranian foreign policies, no matter how much noise President Ahmadinejad makes. Along with the Supreme Leader, a small group of appointed clerics are the true centers of power in Iran. Regime survival is the driving factor for how the Iranian leadership behaves and responds as a state. The Iranian leadership views threats to its survival through lenses that have been shaped by a deep-rooted distrust of Western states, especially the U.S., and struggle to maintain domestic legitimacy. The Iranian regime's calculations on what it will gain from nuclear weapons is not a question of how responsible they will be, but a question of how they view their military options in light of Iran's interests, with primacy given to regime survival. There is strong evidence to support the idea that the Iranian leadership would perceive their options for nuclear weapons as for defensive purposes only. Indications also point to the conclusion that Iran can be deterred and that positive internal reform is inevitable but will occur at Iran's own pace. Given its offensive and defensive advantages, the U.S. should accept the fact that it has the option to comfortably wait this one out while Iran changes within.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 2009
- Accession Number
- ADA539611
Entities
People
- Marcus K. Glenn
Organizations
- Air Command and Staff College