Rising Dragon: Deterring China in 2035
Abstract
The paper begins with a review of the basics of deterrence theory. This is done in order to draw out the principles relevant to deterring China in the future, and to provide an overview for readers not well versed in deterrence theory. In this chapter, the difference between compellence and deterrence is explained using a scenario with which all are familiar; how to keep a teenager from breaking curfew. General, immediate, extended, narrow, denial, and cross domain deterrence concepts are also briefly discussed in order to provide some clarity to a subject that is often misunderstood. Finally, this chapter touches on the principles and underlying assumptions of effective deterrence, paying particular attention to the principle of rationality and its role in determining how an adversary might react to deterrent threats since not all states or national leaders think or make decisions using the same construct that the U.S. does. Next, the paper examines the cultural, political, economic, and military changes occurring in China and examines their future impact using an alternative futures study completed by the Air Force's Center for Strategy and Technology. These trends suggest that China is expected to grow in both economic and military power. By 2035, China will have the ability to exert her influence in the Asian region and beyond. This will occur simultaneously with increased pressures on the world's limited food and energy resources, potentially creating a source of friction between the U.S. and China.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 12, 2009
- Accession Number
- ADA539881
Entities
People
- James C. Dawkins Jr.
Organizations
- Air War College