Mesoscale Predictability of Terrain Induced Flows
Abstract
Long term goals are to allow users of high-resolution mesoscale weather forecasts to understand and assess the likelihood that fine-scale features appearing in the forecast will actually verify. Our results will inform efforts to apply ensemble forecast methodologies to very small-scale weather events. We seek to evaluate the predictability of downslope wind events as forecast by the Navy's COAMPS model. Since terrain-induced mesoscale phenomena have long been regarded as likely to be among the most predictable mesoscale disturbances, this work may suggest an upper limit on the predictability of a wide range of mesoscale phenomena. The Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (TREX) took place from 1 March - 30 April 2006 in and surrounding the Owens valley of California and the adjacent Sierra Nevada Mountains (Fig. 1b). During the TREX field campaign a large observational network was deployed to document, among other things, the temporal evolution of downslope winds, topographically generated mountain waves, and terrain-induced rotors.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2007
- Accession Number
- ADA541528
Entities
People
- Dale R. Durran
Organizations
- University of Washington