Predicting Tropical Cyclone Genesis
Abstract
The long-term goal of this project is to provide probabilistic genesis forecast guidance to operational forecasters and develop a genesis index to provide guidance for operational dynamical model prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. Once regions of high TC genesis probability are identified, a movable, multi-nested version of the COAMPS with resolution of roughly 3 km or less in the inner most grid will be utilized for predicting the genesis event. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this project is to develop a statistical TC genesis model that is capable of separating developing and non-developing tropical disturbances. A TC genesis index will be constructed to provide the probability of cyclogenesis, based on NOGAPS global analysis and forecast fields.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA541869
Entities
People
- James Hansen
- Melinda S. Peng
- Tim Li
Organizations
- United States Naval Research Laboratory