Quantifying Sensible Weather Forecast Variability
Abstract
The long-term goal of this research is to examine the tactical scale environmental predictability and provide a methodology by which it may be operationally assessed or monitored. OBJECTIVES: Sensible weather occurs on small scales and the development and evolution of these small scale features depends strongly on the larger scale environment. Synoptic scale variability is represented by the individual members in a well-designed ensemble modeling system. The objective of this research is to quantify the local scale variations in sensible weather elements, like fog, due to larger scale variability. The sensitivity of selected weather elements to synoptic scale background variance will be quantified to identify when local scale predictability may be high or low. APPROACH: The basic approach that will be used to investigate the tactical-scale sensible weather forecast sensitivity is to conduct a variety of numerical model experiments. The time range of interest is the 0-48h forecast of sensible weather elements of operational interest.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA541870
Entities
People
- Wendell A. Nuss
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School