Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Data Assimilation
Abstract
The ultimate goal of this project is to demonstrate that when tropical cyclones (TCs) are present in the atmosphere, a multi-scale approach for data assimilation can significantly enhance the analysis and forecast of the TC and the forecast of the effects of the TC on the larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g., through the extratropical transition (ET) of the TC into an extratropical cyclone). Our multiscale approach is based on coupling a lower resolution global data assimilation system and a higher resolution limited area data assimilation system for the region where TCs develop and evolve. The coupled approach has the potential to lead to a better utilization of the computer resources in atmospheric modeling. Ours is the first attempt to use an ensemble-based coupled global-limited-area data assimilation system to improve the analysis and forecast of TCs, and the forecast of the effects of the TCs on the larger scale atmospheric processes. In fact, to the best of our knowledge, we have been the only research group working on the development of a global data assimilation system that uses a higher resolution limited area component to enhance the analysis in a selected region. Our key scientific objectives are to find the optimal configuration of the coupled system and to explore its potentials and limitations. Our goal is to assess the skill of our coupled system by a reanalysis of observations from the TCS-08 field program. Our plan is to make this reanalysis available to the community working on the scientific analysis of the observations from TCS-08. We hope that our product will contribute not only to the development of improved forecasting capabilities, but also to an improved understanding of the physical processes associated with the genesis and evolution of tropical cyclones.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA542060
Entities
People
- István Szunyogh
Organizations
- Texas A&M University