Forecasting Enlisted Attrition in the United States Marine Corps by Grade and Years of Service

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze historical United States Marine Corps enlisted attrition behavior and apply time series forecasting techniques by grade and Years of Service in order to identify methods to improve manpower analysts' ability to effectively forecast attrition behavior. This study compared the results of one to five-year Moving Average models and the results of one to five-year Weighted Moving Average models based on two Measures of Effectiveness, Mean Square Error and the Mean Absolute Percent Error. The results of the Friedman test indicate statistical significance of the results in relation to the Mean Square Error of the one to two-year Moving Average models. This thesis demonstrates that in most cases, a simple one-year Moving Average more effectively estimates attrition behavior than the other Moving Average or Weighted Moving Average models analyzed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2011
Accession Number
ADA542942

Entities

People

  • Bill C. Tamayo Jr.

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Active Duty
  • Attrition
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Sets
  • Delphi Method
  • Enlisted Personnel
  • Information Science
  • Losses
  • Management Personnel
  • Marine Corps
  • Measures Of Effectiveness
  • Military Personnel
  • Personnel Management
  • Recruiting
  • Recruits
  • Spreadsheet Software
  • United States

Readers

  • Naval Personnel Management
  • Regression Analysis.