Prediction Markets as an Information Aggregation Tool for Effective Project Management in Defense Acquisition Projects

Abstract

A central challenge in defense acquisition is the development of accurate cost and schedule estimates. The lack of discipline in estimating and unrealistic expectations in the early phases of programs have been often cited as common causes for poor performance of large programs (GAO, 2004, 2006). Initial estimates provided by contractors are known to "anchor" expectations (Aranda & Easterbrook, 2005), even when changes in personnel, technology, or budgetary priorities can affect the performance of a program. We examine the use of prediction markets as a tool for generating schedule estimates as a supplement to existing estimation methodologies.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 30, 2011
Accession Number
ADA544197

Entities

People

  • Matthew Potoski
  • Ricardo Valerdi

Organizations

  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Business Administration
  • Contracts
  • Engineering
  • Governments
  • Management Personnel
  • Military Acquisition
  • Organizational Structure
  • Personnel Management
  • Political Science
  • Project Management
  • Public Administration
  • Public Policy
  • Systems Engineering
  • Systems Management
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management