Assessing Chinese Intentions for the Military Use of the Space Domain
Abstract
The continuing rise of Chinese political and military power has made Americans suspicious of China's intentions in the space domain. For many in the American defense community, the 2007 Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test was the smoking gun that proved China's ultimate desire to challenge American space dominance. Other experts, however, have proposed a more benign intent behind such actions, leading to vigorous debates over Chinese motives and the appropriate American responses. How can American policymakers decipher Chinese intentions for space to craft sound defense policy? This monograph proposes that to understand Chinese intentions, it is necessary to examine the current schools of military thought vying for influence within China's policymaking apparatus. The school with the most influence should dominate decisions regarding the development of Chinese space capabilities, and hence the direction of their military space policy. Such an examination suggests that although Chinese actions may appear to challenge American power, the dominant influence of the Local War school of thought indicates that China's primary intention for space is to reinforce its regional hegemony. Experts have used multiple models to tackle the question of Chinese intentions. Most have defaulted to some version of the Rational Actor model. From this perspective, events in foreign affairs are "more or less purposive acts of unified national governments." As Allison and Graham discuss, however, there are alternative models to explain government actions. In the Government Politics model, policy outcomes are "resultant of bargaining games among players in the national government." Traditionally, proponents of the Government Politics model have analyzed the competition within China along institutional lines.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 19, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA544908
Entities
People
- Paul S. Oh
Organizations
- United States Army Command and General Staff College