Use of a High-Resolution Deterministic Weather Forecast for Strategic Air Traffic Management Decision Support
Abstract
One of the most significant air traffic challenges is managing the National Airspace System (NAS) in a manner that optimizes efficiency and mitigates avoidable delay, while maintaining safety, when convective weather is present. To do this, aviation planners seek to develop strategic air traffic management (ATM) plans and initiatives that anticipate weather constraints 2-8 hours in the future and identify options and alternatives for efficient operations during the off-nominal NAS conditions. In support of strategic planning, traffic managers currently conduct bi-hourly Strategic Planning Telcons (SPTs) and devise weather impact mitigations plans using the human-generated Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP). However, most operational decision-makers agree that the quasi-deterministic CCFP "polygons" (accompanied by a "low/high" forecast confidence rating) lack the granularity and temporal resolution to adequately support efficient strategic ATM plans and decisions. Moreover, traffic managers also assert that probabilistic forecasts of convective weather likelihood, while helpful in highlighting regions of possible airspace disruptions, generally lack the ability to resolve specific weather characteristics pertinent to strategic planning. MIT Lincoln Laboratory, NCAR Research Applications Laboratory, and NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL) have collaborated to develop a high-resolution, rapidly updating 0-8 hour deterministic precipitation and echo tops forecast, known as CoSPA, to aid operational decision-makers in developing strategic plans for weather impact mitigation. In the summer of 2010, a comprehensive field study was conducted to assess potential benefits and the operational performance of CoSPA in the context of strategic ATM planning.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 22, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA545881
Entities
People
- Joseph C. Venuti
- Michael Robinson
- Starr Mcgettigan
Organizations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology