What's Wrong with Zero?
Abstract
President Obama's pledge during a speech in Prague in April 2009 to eliminate nuclear weapons from the US arsenal was greeted positively by most people. Although Obama was careful not to specify when this goal would be achieved, he nonetheless set the country on a path to reduce to zero the number of nuclear weapons possessed by the United States. Yet, the president's vision is not shared by the other major holders of nuclear weapons: Russia, China, France, and Great Britain. In fact, unlike the United States, each has nuclear weapon modernization programs underway or planned. While not all of these programs necessarily aim to increase existing arsenals quantitatively, each envisions qualitative improvements to nuclear weapons and related delivery systems to ensure their credibility well into the future. A review of these nuclear modernization programs more than suggests that each country perceives the utility of nuclear weapons for its long-term national security. Although Russian president Dmitry Medvedev broadly endorsed President Obama's goal, Russia quickly identified several conditions to attain agreement on a nuclear-free world, suggesting little enthusiasm for Obama's proposal. Moreover, Russia's nuclear modernization programs point to a continuing, not declining, role for nuclear weapons in its strategic thinking. Russia plans to gradually retire its aging SS-18, SS-19, and SS-25 ICBMs and replace them with modified Topol-M (RS-24) missiles capable of deploying multiple independently targeted warheads. To ensure the long-term viability of its sea-based deterrent, Russia will retire its Delta IV ballistic missile submarines and replace those platforms with new Borei-class submarines, each armed with 16 new Bulava missiles capable of carrying six warheads each. In sum, as Stanford University research associate Pavel Podvig has pointed out, over the long term Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal could grow.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA546676
Entities
People
- Charles E. Costanzo
Organizations
- Air Command and Staff College