Redefining Success: Applying Lessons in Nuclear Diplomacy from North Korea to Iran (INSS Strategic Perspectives, Number 1, September 2010)
Abstract
This comparative study of U.S. nuclear diplomacy toward North Korea and Iran suggests that the North Korea case offers policy makers crucial lessons applicable to Iran. It provides policy recommendations based on four key conclusions: that a common paradigm (nuclear pause) must be applied to both states; that nuclear deals negotiated with international outliers like North Korea and Iran must draw on widely accepted policy or practice; that these deals should be linked to political/diplomatic strategies relevant to the domestic and regional policy context of each state; and that the success of a nuclear pause must be judged by whether it accomplishes nuclear policy goals, not broader policy goals. Time is of the essence. North Korea's leadership transition could prove destabilizing to the region, and Iran's enrichment capability is steadily advancing. In the case of North Korea, the paper recommends that the United States develop the following: (1) a political/diplomatic strategy to cope with an impending North Korean leadership transition; (2) procedures for coordinating responses with South Korea, Japan, China, and Russia to a succession that could spin out of control; and (3) with the concurrence of South Korea and Japan, a strategy of nuclear pause that caps the North Korean arsenal under international oversight and conditions humanitarian aid on economic progress. In the case of Iran, the paper recommends two approaches: (1) a nuclear pause allowing limited uranium enrichment in Iran under international oversight, and nuclear safety cooperation with regional participation; and (2) pragmatic containment of Iran that links the prospect of improved relations to Iranian support for U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq and Afghanistan and to establish a strategic partnership with Pakistan.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA546681
Entities
People
- Ferial A. Saeed
Organizations
- National Defense University