Managing Arab-Kurd Tensions in Northern Iraq After the Withdrawal of U.S. Troops

Abstract

Though the United States has pledged to withdraw its combat forces from Iraq by the end of 2011, ethnic and sectarian fault lines will continue to divide the country. Tensions in northern Iraq-where Arab and Kurdish communities face off regarding disputes over land, resources, governance, and security-could easily, with the right catalyst, lead to armed conflict. The risk of violence is increased significantly by the presence of roughly 75,000 Kurdish peshmerga fighters and thousands of Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in and around disputed areas. To prevent violence between Arabs and Kurds, U.S. forces have supervised a joint security architecture that includes representation from the ISF, Kurdish forces, and USF-I. The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) has also launched a range of CBMs to establish trust between the Arab and Kurdish communities and to defuse potential flash points. Continuing to contain Arab-Kurd tensions will require a neutral third-party arbitrator that can facilitate local CBMs, push for national-level negotiations, and prevent armed conflict between Iraqi and Kurdish troops. While U.S. civilian entities could help implement CBMs and mediate political talks, the continued presence of U.S. military forces within the disputed internal boundaries would be the most effective way to prevent violent conflict between Arabs and Kurds. This paper presents options for mitigating the risks of Arab-Kurd conflict both before and after the withdrawal of U.S. troops. It discusses the feasibility of establishing a range of CBMs that can help Arabs and Kurds build trust and avoid local conflicts that could derail efforts to resolve Iraq's fundamental political challenges through negotiations. It also suggests mechanisms through which U.S. government entities-both civilian and military-could work to alleviate tensions in northern Iraq.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2011
Accession Number
ADA547003

Entities

People

  • Jeffrey Martini
  • Larry Hanauer
  • Omar Al-shahery

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Agreements
  • Congress
  • Employment
  • Foreign Relations
  • Governments
  • International Organizations
  • Military Science
  • National Governments
  • National Security
  • Nato
  • Personnel Management
  • Political Systems
  • Recreation
  • Unified Combatant Commands
  • United States
  • War Colleges
  • Warfare

Readers

  • International Relations and Conflict Resolution
  • Military and Counterinsurgency Studies.
  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.