Afghanistan - Alternative Futures and Their Implications
Abstract
The future is a combination of what 'will be' and what '"can be.' Perhaps no single country exercises more global influence over the factors that sway what 'can be' than those actions of the United States. Its preeminent influence extends across almost every global domain (economic, social, political, military and cultural), and reaches down into nearly every country of the world. However, the world order consists of a complex, adaptive and open system that complicates and often obviates US strategies. However, the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios provides a means of identifying and examining numerous convoluted factors that can profoundly influence those strategies. This paper examines the interests and activities of the major stakeholders within a regional and global context and develops four alternative scenarios describing the future of Afghanistan. The scenarios divulge three strategic precepts: (1) the criticality of establishing viable decentralized governance at the local, district and provincial levels; (2) the accommodation of MODERATE Taliban factions as part of the governance structure in select areas where they have a strong influence; and (3) accomplishing both of these actions BEFORE the US withdraws its combat forces.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 14, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA547182
Entities
People
- Naveed Mukhtar
Organizations
- United States Army War College