Global Demographic Change and Its Implications for Military Power
Abstract
It is far easier to notice change marked by singular events?the falling of the Berlin Wall, the attack on the World Trade Center?than change that takes place over time. The latter may initially be hard to detect, but such change can profoundly transform societies, influencing a host of social, economic, and political issues. Demographic change is almost always slow change, but it is quite powerful and, for the most part, inexorable. Barring catastrophe, we know how many 25-year-olds the world will house in 2030 because they have already been born and have all passed infancy (after which point their prospective survival rates are, in most places, nearly 100 percent). Given the limited numbers and persistent patterns of immigration, we have a fairly good idea how many 25-year-olds every country will house in 2030 as well. To generalize further, we have a fairly good idea of how many people of working age-herein defined as between 20 and 60-will inhabit each of the world's nations between now and 2030, and a rough idea of how many will by 2050. Working-age populations are what determine the demographic component of national power. The contribution from those under 20 or over 60 tends to be relatively small and is unlikely to reflect the conclusions drawn from limiting working age to those years.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA547184
Entities
People
- Howard J. Shatz
- Julie E. Taylor
- Martin C. Libicki
Organizations
- RAND Corporation