Assumptions and Grand Strategy
Abstract
Strategy and, as this article has argued, grand strategy, are always made in highly complex, multifaceted and extremely dynamic environments. The control of events is often illusory. And, recognizing that any success achieved is in good measure dependent on the actions of one's opponents, it must be adaptive. "The statesman is like a wayfarer in the forest," Bismarck once observed, "who knows in which direction he is walking but not at what point he will emerge from the trees." It requires no great wisdom to realize that, under such conditions, assumptions are unavoidable. They help map out a course of action; and, while they can take many forms, it is the ability to provide insight which determines their value. This holds true on a battlefield but it is also the case in grand strategy. In the concluding paragraph of his article, Hammes writes that, "[i]n short, as amply demonstrated in recent conflicts, an incorrect assumption can completely overturn a plan. A series of incorrect assumptions can lead to strategic failure." They have the potential to be, as his article stated, a "fatal oversight." Given those stakes, the warning that we need to pay more critical attention to assumptions is one that should be taken to heart.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA548906
Entities
People
- Ben Lombardi
Organizations
- Defence Research and Development Canada