Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism - Forecasting Domestic Political Violence
Abstract
The Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism (PSIR) Model of Domestic Political Violence forecasts political violence levels at yearly intervals into the future. The model enables policymakers, particularly in the COCOMS, to proactively plan for instances of increased domestic political violence, with implications for resource allocation and intelligence asset assignment. Using a regression model applied to a large number of drivers of conflict variables spanning numerous open source social science datasets, the PSIR model uses a novel Negative Residuals technique. Negative Residuals result from the model predicting higher levels of violence than actually experienced, indicating nation states that are predisposed to increasing levels of violence based on the presence of environmental conditions and drivers of conflict with demonstrated correlation with political violence.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA549367
Entities
People
- Alper Caglayan
- Amanda Murdie
- David Cingranelli
- Dustin Burke
- Laura Stroh
- Sam Bell