WSARA 2009: Joint Strike Fighter Root Cause Analysis
Abstract
Growth in unit cost estimates for the Joint Strike Fighter program, from the initial estimate in 2001 to the current estimate in the 2009 Selected Acquisition Report (SAR), has led to a "critical" Nunn-McCurdy breach and a subsequent recertification effort in FY 2010. The 2009 SAR reported a 57 percent increase in both the average procurement unit cost (APUC) and the program acquisition unit cost (PAUC), compared to the initial 2001 program estimates. To understand the reasons for the growth, Director, Performance Assessments and Root Cause Analysis asked IDA to provide a determination and assessment of the root causes of the Nunn-McCurdy Breach. IDA's analysis identified and quantified three major categories of growth: errors in the original 2001 Milestone B cost estimate, redesign of the aircraft in 2003, and changes in the buy profile (slipping the schedule and reducing the total quantity), together accounting for a growth of more than 50 percent over the initial unit cost estimates. Due to constraints of the Nunn-McCurdy recertification process, IDA did not have time to address other areas of potentially significant growth, such as growth in the propulsion cost estimates and a change in the estimating approach.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA549828
Entities
People
- Alexander O. Gallo
- Bruce R. Harmon
- Colin D. Sullivan
- Harley A. Cloud
- Ji S. Byun
- John R. Hiller
- Matthew W. Gonwa
- Patricia F. Bronson
- Prashant R. Patel
- Scot A. Arnold
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses