Uncertainties in Climate Model Projections of Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss
Abstract
Observations indicate that the Arctic has undergone rapid environmental change over the last 30 years. This includes significant reductions in sea ice cover that are most pronounced in summer. Climate model simulations consistently project that long-term sea ice loss will continue in the future in response to rising greenhouse gas forcing. However, models differ on the character of this future sea ice loss, including the rates of change, the likelihood that periods of abrupt loss could occur, and the timing at which a seasonally ice-free Arctic may be realized. Here we discuss climate model simulations of projected sea ice loss, the inherent uncertainties in these projections, and the factors that contribute to the range of model projections. This includes an analysis of the potential for periods of rapid sea ice loss. Finally some insights on the research needed to narrow climate model uncertainty are given.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA554067
Entities
People
- Marika Holland
Organizations
- National Center for Atmospheric Research