Enhancing the Enhanced Scenario-Based Method of Cost-Risk Analysis

Abstract

The current s-curve method of cost-risk analysis for major DoN acquisitions projects does not accurately estimate actual cost when the program reaches full-rate production. Another, sometimes more effective method of measuring cost risk, is the enhanced scenario-based method (eSBM) of risk analysis. The reason that cost estimations based on Milestone B costs are inaccurate is that little, if any, real information about the project is known at that point in the project. eSBM allows managers a less statistically tasking method of determining cost risk for a project while still maintaining the requirements of the Weapons System Acquisitions Reform Act (WSARA) of 2009. In measuring the usefulness of eSBM, the key factors should focus on the acquisition strategy being used for the project and the time frame from Milestone B to later milestones. I hypothesized that different acquisition strategies will yield different levels of success in estimating cost risk for eSBM.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 16, 2011
Accession Number
ADA555669

Entities

People

  • Seth T. Hooper

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Business Administration
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Databases
  • Growth Factors
  • Information Science
  • Management Personnel
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Organizational Structure
  • Public Policy
  • Regression Analysis
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Uss Bremerton

Readers

  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis