Enhancing the Enhanced Scenario-Based Method of Cost Risk Analysis

Abstract

The current S-Curve method of cost risk analysis for major Department of the Navy (DON) acquisition projects does not accurately estimate actual cost when the program reaches Full Rate Production. Another sometimes more effective method of measuring cost risk is by using the enhanced scenario-based method (eSBM) of risk analysis. The reason that cost estimations from the milestone B costs are inaccurate is that very little, if any, real information about the project is known. eSBM allows managers a less statistically tasking method of determining cost risk for a project while still maintaining the requirements of the Weapons System Acquisitions Reform Act. The key factors in measuring the usefulness of eSBM should be focused on the acquisition strategy being used for the project and the time frame from Milestone B to later Milestones. I presume that different acquisition strategies will yield different levels of success in estimating cost risk for eSBM.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 2011
Accession Number
ADA556349

Entities

People

  • Seth T. Hooper

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Business Administration
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Department Of Defense
  • Distribution Functions
  • Growth Factors
  • Information Science
  • Military Acquisition
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Regression Analysis
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Systems Analysis and Design