Guesswork: The Troubled Past of Prediciton
Abstract
Most of us long to know the future, especially in troubled times. But lately behavioral scientists have been shattering our crystal balls. The scholar Philip Tetlock has been widely cited for revealing that the more renowned the expert, the more likely his predictions will be false (Tetlock, 2005). The psychologist Daniel Gilbert tells us that we cannot even predict what will bring us joy, since our expectations are almost always off (Gilbert, 2006). And the gleefully irreverent market trader Nassim Taleb argues that the massive impact of black swans improbable but surprisingly frequent anomalies -- makes any effort at prediction fruitless (Taleb, 2007). Most notable of all, the economist Dan Ariely has exposed the flawed models for predicting our behavior in everything from the products we buy to the daily choices we make (Ariely, 2008). Of course, they re all right. We are abysmal at prediction. But the skeptics have missed a crucial point: we re getting awfully good at guessing.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA557000
Entities
People
- Jen Perry
- Zachary Shore
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School