WMD Forecasting in Historical and Contemporary Perspective
Abstract
This paper reviews a select set of past proliferation-related forecasts. These "historical" forecasts were performed between 1957 and 1990. They addressed nuclear proliferation most prominently but also included forecasts of Soviet strategic forces developments and wider missile proliferation. These forecasts also covered a broad spectrum of sources: declassified U.S. intelligence estimates, official memos, assessments by "special commissions," think tank reports, and writings by individual experts. Each forecast sought to project future proliferation-related developments as well as the drivers of those trends. The paper briefly reviews the main features of the forecasts and then presents a series of potential guidelines for future proliferation forecasting efforts based on the record of past forecasts. These guidelines are intended to support ASCO's exploration of options for developing a forecasting capability as part of its threat anticipation mission and in support of the wider threat reduction activities of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA557001
Entities
People
- Aaron Arnold
- Jack Borchard Jennifer
- James Scouras
- Jonathan Fox
- Lewis Dunn
- Paul Bernstein
- Rodney Jonew
Organizations
- Leidos