Characterization of Mesoscale Predictability
Abstract
One of the major efforts in the atmospheric sciences has been to develop and implement forecast models and to improve their parameterization of unresolved physical processes (boundary-layer transport, cloud microphysics ). For the last three decades, the relatively pessimistic predictions of Lorenz (1969) about the predictability of small-scale (i.e., mesoscale) atmospheric features have been largely ignored as routine weather forecasts were conducted at increasingly fine scale. Recent research suggests there are nevertheless, significant limitations to the predictability of mesoscale atmospheric circulations. Our goal is to develop an understanding of the predictability of such circulations in forecasts generated by state-of-the-art high-resolution mesoscale models.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA557085
Entities
People
- Dale R. Durran
Organizations
- University of Washington